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Is growth over for wireless operators?


01/03/2010

The wireless sector can only be described as a growth sector again. This, according to Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett, after approval is the total of all the major U.S. wireless operators to report their fourth quarter results in full in the last month. Sector revenues grew only 2.6% and 3.3% Q4 year, a significant decrease from two years.

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Bernstein does not expect these figures to improve both. Projecting further decline in postpaid, with growth of only 1.2% in 2010. Must prepay a better rate at 18.2% per year, but many are derived from the growth engines for the subscription. In total, he expects growth of 5.1% customer Bernstein in 2010, from 5.9% in 2009. ARPU is also expected to be flat to postpaid and down 7% for prepayment. As a result of the decline, new postpaid price war in 2008 may soon occur.

" emphasis on postpaid, it emphasizes the same as last year's previous salary, raise the specter of the 2010 Meltdown, which missed the target with the resulting round after round of post-pay discounts, " Moffett wrote in a research note. Muafaka sector earnings estimates of about four Tier One carriers, and MetroPCS, U. S. Cellular and Leap, is for growth of 3.4% to 4.4% in 2010, but Bernstein believes will be 2.7% or less.

" If she insisted that the economy mounted, and the price gap between prepaid and postpaid increased, the market has started pressing prepaid postpaid growth, " said Moffett. Prepaid " Reseller customers now account for 22.6% of the total market, for a full ten percentage points, in the last five years. Mixed income remained stable, however. Postpaid remained, and remains, the main industry, now accounting for nearly 90% of total service revenues. "

The Telecommunications Industry Association (tia) took a positive position during the year, noting that growth has come often and even dropped the price and competitive pressure to grow from Prepaid providers. The crime was a bit optimistic for growth, forecasting'mid-to high-single number'growth in the next five years. In particular, income from sector organizations are expected to voice, data, wireless infrastructure and terminals to service $278 billion in 2013.

Characteristics of the plant to put the total wireless customer service costs less, influenced the direction that all pre-and postpaid wireless service in 2009. Bars for prepaid service providers, first established by Boost Mobile at $50 for unlimited plans, and fell to $40 after reducing the pressure by MetroPCS. Regional CDMA provider Leap Wireless also got a lot of additional customers in Q4 of Prepaid development plan unlimited $25. U. S. Prepaid Cellular's segment I saw 6.2% Sequential customers P4 improvement after two quarters of losses. As a competitor, after the traditional postpaid Prepaid focusing on a limited carrier Boon first introduced the plan in all markets in July.

According to Moffett, MetroPCS merger to build capacity and can withstand the pressure jump in the price of their competitors the way, T-Mobile and Sprint, do not. Its Leap Q4 earnings call officials proposed a new pricing plan need not give birth to their price cut may be on the horizon, a leading wireless Prepaid Moffett believed to stabilize prices. Carriers are able to reach a total of up and down in an additional quarter churn, making it the first in which prices Prepaid unnecessary pressure.

" Leap `s findings strengthen the confidence of the fourth quarter, such as by supporting important stories - super natural costs - remains intact, " Moffett said in a separate research note. Leap's cost structure, the basis of competition, he remains less well as the use and cost of purchase and the annual growth down despite 17% revenue growth.

All post and Prepaid providers will have to put a close eye on the price war in 2010, as their best customers - and perhaps only - bet. PricewaterhouseCooper survey every year is the need for young operators is that the value of existing clients reduce the impact of a full line penetration, increasing costs, consumer price growth and interest costs of data traffic. Is the operator a user wants to premium, value-oriented family planning or Prepaid market, the emphasis shifted prices, PWC's wireless industry leader United States, Pierre-Alain Sur said in the study.

Major airlines that have recognized this trend as well. Prepaid provider researching new ways to add value to existing customers, including the limited size of the basic set datapaket.Dessa smartphone line-up phone. MetroPCS to find even with capacity growth of prepaid Malte 4G network in the future either. Meanwhile, major airlines have invested more than $160 per customer on their network, more than 30% will jump over 2008, according to a study of the PWC. This comes at the same time the cost of regular clients grow more than 50%.

The service provider must " dive deep into their clients' earnings profile of all existing categories, " said research Sur. " And today `s improved visibility, airlines have been much more powerful set of tools to improve the line across each type of customer interaction. "

See the rest of the Connected Planet quarter of the vaccine in here:

- Gap between Verizon's wireless and wireline broad hands
- AT & T: Improving the 3G network by 2010 goal
- Sprint service plan Prepaid targeted strategies to lead
- T-Mobile Prepaid helped growth, revenue hurts
- MetroPCS tap the power of prepaid 4G



 

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